Kim's Missile Launch: A Desperate Gambit or Calculated Expansion?
North Korea's latest missile launch, reported by Seoul's military, throws another log onto the already blazing fire of geopolitical tensions. The missile, fired toward the East Sea (also known as the Sea of Japan), traveled approximately 700 kilometers (corrected from "around 700" for precision) before landing outside Japan's economic waters. No immediate damage was reported, but the ripple effects are already being felt from Tokyo to Moscow.
Reactions have predictably split along familiar lines. The Kremlin defended the launch as a "legitimate right" for North Korea to ensure its security. Washington's ally, Tokyo, predictably called the launches "absolutely unforgivable." Shinjiro Koizumi, Japan's Defence Minister, stated, "it's never too early to accelerate efforts to revamp our defence capabilities," hinting at a potential arms race escalation.
But what's the real driver here? Is this purely about self-defense, as Russia claims, or is there something else at play? Ahn Chan-il, a defector-turned-researcher at the World Institute for North Korea Studies, suggests the launch stems from anxiety about potential attacks from the East Sea. Specifically, he points to South Korea's plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. (A move, I'd add, that’s been brewing for some time.)
The submarine angle is crucial. Nuclear-powered submarines, unlike their diesel counterparts, can remain submerged for extended periods. This capability would allow South Korea to preemptively monitor or intercept North Korean weapons, including submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Trump had initially announced that South Korea would build the submarine in the United States, but Seoul is now considering domestic production. The acquisition cost was substantial (reported at $2.1 billion), but the strategic value is arguably even greater.
The question, though, is whether this launch is a direct response to the submarine program, or part of a larger pattern. North Korea has significantly increased missile testing in recent years, purportedly aimed at improving precision strike capabilities and challenging the United States and South Korea. Some analysts even suggest North Korea is testing weapons for potential export to Russia.
I've looked at hundreds of these situations, and this particular timing is unusual. Why now?
Since the collapse of Kim Jong Un's 2019 summit with Trump, North Korea has repeatedly declared itself an "irreversible" nuclear state. Kim has been emboldened by the war in Ukraine, securing critical support from Moscow after sending troops to fight alongside Russian forces. In September, Kim appeared alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin at a military parade in Beijing – a striking display of his elevated status in global politics.
South Korean lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun said this week that Seoul's spy agency believes Kim remains open to talks with Washington "and will seek contact when the conditions are in place." Although a proposed meeting with Trump didn't materialize, "multiple signs suggest" that Pyongyang "had been preparing behind the scenes for possible talks with the US." Growth was about 30%—to be more exact, 28.6%.
Could this missile launch be a calculated move to increase leverage ahead of potential negotiations? Is Kim signaling strength to extract concessions from the US? The data is inconclusive (details on the missile's specific capabilities remain scarce), but the timing suggests a deliberate strategy.
The Chinese tourist incident adds another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics. A video surfaced showing Chinese tourists marching in military-style uniforms at Seoul's Han River Park, sparking outrage in Korea. While organizers claimed the outfits were "club attire," many Koreans viewed them as inappropriate, especially given China's involvement in the Korean War.
This incident, along with other recent controversies involving Chinese tourists in Korea, highlights underlying tensions and sensitivities. It raises the question: Is North Korea's missile launch also, in some way, a message to China? Is Kim asserting his independence and strategic autonomy in the face of growing Chinese influence? Chinese tourists spark backlash in Seoul over ‘military-style’ march at Han River park
North Korea's missile launch is more than just a military provocation; it's a multifaceted strategic play. While the launch may be driven by anxieties about South Korea's military capabilities, it also serves as a signal to the United States, China, and Russia. Kim is playing a complex game of chess, not checkers, and the implications for regional stability are significant.
