Okay, so FuboTV "beat expectations" in Q3. Give me a break. That's like saying a boxer who gets knocked down in the 12th round "beat expectations" because he lasted longer than anyone thought. The stock weakened, people. That's the headline. Not some cherry-picked EBITDA number.
Needham's still slapping a "Buy" rating on this thing with a $4.25 price target? Analysts, man. They're like weather forecasters, except less accurate and with more conflicts of interest. I wonder if they even use the same dartboard...
Fine, let's play their game. Revenue was $377.2 million, down 2% year-over-year but apparently 7% above Needham's guess. Adjusted EBITDA was $6.9 million, a huge swing from a $27.6 million loss. Yay? They merged with Hulu + Live TV three days before the report. Convenient timing, ain't it? Probably trying to bury the bad news.
But here's the kicker: shares still tanked. Why? Because the market isn't as stupid as these analysts think. Revenue growth is negative. ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) is down because of their "skinny-bundle" strategy. Free cash flow is still hemorrhaging. And fiscal 2026 estimates? Slashed.
They launched a $55/month super-skinny bundle on September 2nd. "To address growing price sensitivity," they say. Translation: people are realizing they can watch 90% of what they want for 20% of the price on other streaming services. No cannibalization of existing customers? Yeah, right. I bet those existing customers are just waiting for their contracts to expire before jumping ship.
And don't even get me started on advertising revenue. Down 6% to $25.4 million. They beat forecasts by 22%? Who made those forecasts, Stevie Wonder?
Needham keeps harping on Disney's 70% ownership stake. "It reduces financial risk!" they shout. Okay, but let's be real. Disney doesn't give a damn about FuboTV. It's a rounding error on their balance sheet. They're just trying to offload some of their content and maybe scoop up some subscribers along the way. It's like a whale "investing" in an ant farm.
The analyst firm highlighted Fubo’s reaffirmed long-term goal of $100 ARPU and 30% EBITDA margins. These are just made-up numbers. Dreams. Fantasies. They currently have ARPU of $95 and margins around 20%. How are they gonna grow ARPU while offering a cheaper service? Magic?
Oh, and they're going international! They plan to integrate their Molotov service (which I've never heard of) into the U.S. platform and "collaborate with Disney" to tap into Disney+'s 100 million international subscribers. Good luck with that. It's like saying you're going to build a rocket ship out of cardboard boxes and fly to Mars.
Speaking of cardboard boxes, I gotta rant about my internet bill. Spectrum keeps jacking up the price, and for what? So I can watch FuboTV lose money? It's a scam, I tell you!
Needham's $4.25 price forecast is based on some convoluted Discounted Cash Flow model that assumes 10.9% annual EBITDA growth over the next decade. Seriously? In this economy? With cord-cutting accelerating? Are they smoking something? According to a recent article, FuboTV is seen as an inexpensive bet on U.S. streaming trends by some analysts What's Going On With FuboTV Stock Tuesday? - FuboTV (NYSE:FUBO).
Fiscal 2026 estimates were lowered to $1.56 billion in revenue, earnings per share of 15 cents loss, and $72.6 million in adjusted EBITDA. So, they're admitting they're going to lose money in 2026, but they still think the stock is a buy?
FUBO shares were trading higher by 5.35% to $3.645. Offcourse, this was on Tuesday. I suspect this is just noise.
